End of history illusion

“People regard the present as a watershed moment that will last the rest of their lives .. this ‘end of history illusion’ has consequences, leading people to overpay for future opportunities in light of their current preferences.” Daniel Gilbert 

This study examines the ‘end of history’ illusion [ link ]. A cognitive bias toward projecting present values and personal preferences into the future .. even when it’s clear that values and preferences change so dramatically. Guess that means I imagine myself willing to pay the same for concert tickets to see Lissie ten years from now .. even though I’m no longer that  interested in seeing someone like Sarah Bettens who was one of my favorites ten years ago.

Decision making

Decisions are mostly intuitive, logical explanations
catch-up milliseconds later ~ Robert Sapolsky [ link ]

Resource-based attention

In an elegant ‘simulation’ of economic-class differences, researchers found that people with means (those in higher economic classes) don’t have to focus so much on their immediate needs and are more likely to consider the future cost of borrowing when making purchase decisions. On the other hand, people with limited means, who do have to focus on immediate needs, make better use of the resources they have but lose sight of the future cost of borrowing. As a result, they are more likely to become over-extended [ link ]. This means that no matter who you are, having limited resources alters the way you perceive and make borrowing decisions. They simulated economic differences by altering either the amount of time or the number of opportunities each group had available to make choices. The group with less time made better use of it when making purchase decisions than the group with more time. However, when they were allowed to ‘borrow time’ from future periods, at exorbitant cost .. these advantages diminish. This tells me that it’s not some innate ability to defer gratification that distinguishes rich from poor. When you have less to spend ..your attention is, by necessity, focused on the demands of the present situation.